Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2681 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:20	MSN 10:22	10%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2599 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:47	MSN 15:51	12%	3%	0.6%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:25 → MSP 09:00DL 2668	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	4h 54m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646	3h 32m Detroit	DTW 12:26 → MSN 12:42DL 844	6h 42m	100%	86%
American Details →	ATL 08:13 → CLT 09:26AA 5063 · flown by PSA	2h 53m Charlotte	CLT 12:19 → MSN 13:34AA 2443	6h 21m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	3h 53m Washington	DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39DL 5645 · flown by Republic	7h 59m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432	2h 02m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	7h 33m	99%	81%
American Details →	ATL 06:01 → DFW 07:33AA 2770	1h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:39 → MSN 11:14AA 1141	6h 13m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	3h 10m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 21:02DL 5444 · flown by Endeavor	6h 34m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:30 → LGA 09:39DL 323	3h 06m New York	LGA 12:45 → MSN 14:19DL 5033 · flown by Endeavor	7h 49m	100%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524	49m New York	LGA 17:39 → MSN 19:17DL 5611 · flown by Republic	5h 47m	65%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON