Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 635 BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest YV 3997 BDL 14:59 → IAD 16:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 635 United Flight history →	BDL 06:00	IAD 07:26	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1786 United Flight history →	BDL 10:33	IAD 12:09	6%	3%	0.5%	91%
YX 3401 Republic	BDL 19:35	IAD 21:17	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
YV 3997 Mesa	BDL 14:59	IAD 16:35	13%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON