Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5603 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:08	MSN 15:03	17%	6%	1.0%	85%
YX 4676 Republic	BOS 20:05	MSN 22:08	24%	10%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 24m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	8h 51m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	59m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	95%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	3h 49m Charlotte	CLT 12:19 → MSN 13:34AA 2443	8h 29m	98%	83%
United Details →	BOS 07:19 → ORD 09:17UA 2631	3h 42m Chicago	ORD 12:59 → MSN 14:01UA 2349	7h 42m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:20 → DCA 12:12DL 5592 · flown by Republic	3h 08m Washington	DCA 15:20 → MSN 16:39DL 5645 · flown by Republic	7h 19m	98%	81%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 11:42 → MSN 12:49AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	6h 49m	96%	78%
American Details →	BOS 08:58 → ORD 11:00AA 1239	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	7h 16m	95%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 17:15 → DTW 19:39DL 1432	58m Detroit	DTW 20:37 → MSN 21:02DL 5444 · flown by Endeavor	4h 47m	68%	49%
United Details →	BOS 15:45 → EWR 17:14UA 1647	1h 45m Newark	EWR 18:59 → MSN 20:39UA 3620 · flown by Republic	5h 54m	73%	48%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:00 → LGA 16:30DL 5736 · flown by Republic	1h 09m New York	LGA 17:39 → MSN 19:17DL 5611 · flown by Republic	5h 17m	74%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON