Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2443 American	CLT 12:19	MSN 13:34	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 1426 American Flight history →	CLT 19:34	MSN 20:49	22%	9%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Charlotte). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 05:30 → ATL 06:41DL 3186	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	5h 52m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	CLT 06:20 → MSP 07:59DL 2491	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	99%	88%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	2h 40m Chicago	ORD 11:42 → MSN 12:49AA 6256 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	100%	82%
American Details →	CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → MSN 15:14AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 32m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	CLT 12:19 → ATL 13:32DL 3190	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:47 → MSN 15:51DL 2599	4h 32m	92%	80%
American Details →	CLT 13:01 → ORD 14:16AA 2530	3h 09m Chicago	ORD 17:25 → MSN 18:43AA 3953 · flown by Envoy	6h 42m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	CLT 09:42 → DTW 11:30DL 1639	56m Detroit	DTW 12:26 → MSN 12:42DL 844	4h 00m	90%	77%
American Details →	CLT 05:45 → DFW 07:35AA 3180	1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:39 → MSN 11:14AA 1141	6h 29m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	CLT 14:37 → LGA 16:40DL 5046 · flown by Endeavor	59m New York	LGA 17:39 → MSN 19:17DL 5611 · flown by Republic	5h 40m	68%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON