Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1330 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 1330 EWR 08:50 → SEA 11:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AS 296 EWR 17:49 → SEA 20:50 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1330 United Flight history →	EWR 08:50	SEA 11:57	22%	6%	0.8%	79%
AS 373 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 09:10	SEA 12:02	22%	5%	1.4%	96%worse than usual
AS 299 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 07:25	SEA 10:35	23%	5%	1.7%	74%
UA 1814 United	EWR 15:18	SEA 18:18	28%	12%	0.7%	no record
UA 2693 United	EWR 18:44	SEA 21:44	35%	16%	0.7%	no record
AS 296 Alaska Flight history →	EWR 17:49	SEA 20:50	38%	12%	1.0%	47%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	EWR 06:15 → MSP 08:13DL 1641	52m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	7h 44m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 11:47 → MSP 13:45DL 2864	1h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 13m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	8h 34m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON