Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 42%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: WN 1428 at 12:06, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 1428 Southwest	HNL 12:06	ONT 20:27	35%	11%	0.9%	no record
AS 271 Alaska Flight history →	HNL 13:00	ONT 21:31	50%	16%	1.3%	77%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	HNL 09:36 → SFO 17:59UA 1176	3h 01m San Francisco	SFO 21:00 → ONT 22:37UA 552	10h 01m	99%	72%
United Details →	HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373	3h 55m San Francisco	SFO 19:10 → ONT 20:47UA 2478	10h 37m	94%	68%
Alaska Details →	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:27AS 267	1h 38m Seattle	SEA 21:05 → ONT 23:39AS 489	9h 36m	85%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON