Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4292 at 09:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4292 Southwest	LAS 09:11	SBA 10:38	11%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAS 06:00 → SLC 08:19DL 2674	2h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	5h 59m	99%	93%
Delta Details →	LAS 10:00 → SLC 12:29DL 1698	2h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	98%	92%
American Details →	LAS 06:45 → PHX 08:00AA 1808	2h 06m Phoenix	PHX 10:06 → SBA 11:56AA 2928	5h 11m	95%	81%
United Details →	LAS 06:00 → SFO 07:35UA 643	2h 54m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	5h 52m	99%	72%
Alaska Details →	LAS 14:08 → PDX 16:29AS 756	1h 02m Portland	PDX 17:31 → SBA 19:54AS 2029 · flown by Horizon	5h 46m	84%	71%
Alaska Details →	LAS 11:57 → SEA 14:29AS 785	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 15:59 → SBA 18:22AS 610	6h 25m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	LAS 10:44 → LAX 12:02UA 2316	46m Los Angeles	LAX 12:48 → SBA 13:44UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m	70%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON