Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5340 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 10:20	ROC 11:35	8%	3%	0.6%	81%
9E 5054 Endeavor	LGA 15:55	ROC 17:10	12%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	2h 33m Detroit	DTW 10:28 → ROC 11:49DL 5100 · flown by Endeavor	5h 44m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078	3h 24m Detroit	DTW 14:48 → ROC 16:09DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 44m	100%	90%
American Details →	LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58AA 3084	2h 16m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742	6h 14m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	5h 31m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	8h 20m	100%	81%
United Details →	LGA 10:15 → ORD 11:57UA 1310	1h 58m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → ROC 16:45UA 1239	6h 30m	97%	78%
United Details →	LGA 13:28 → ORD 15:00UA 1967	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22UA 1568	7h 54m	97%	74%
American Details →	LGA 10:01 → CLT 11:54AA 2036	3h 25m Charlotte	CLT 15:19 → ROC 17:19AA 2320	7h 18m	98%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON