tailodds FORECAST
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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4939 at 09:20, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4939 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → MAF 09:20 PHX 09:23 12% 8% 0.7% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Midland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MAF 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 4075 · flown by Envoy 4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → PHX 11:06AA 2905 8h 06m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → MAF 05:01 → IAH 06:42UA 6351 · flown by Mesa 1h 18m Houston IAH 08:00 → PHX 08:57UA 2614 5h 56m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → MAF 07:26 → DEN 08:20UA 5794 · flown by SkyWest 1h 30m Denver DEN 09:50 → PHX 10:55UA 1782 5h 29m 94% 84%
AmericanDetails → MAF 08:02 → DFW 09:25AA 3352 · flown by Envoy 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:29 → PHX 12:14AA 359 6h 12m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → MAF 07:02 → DFW 08:28AA 6381 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → PHX 13:12AA 336 8h 10m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → MAF 13:45 → DEN 14:47UA 4807 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m Denver DEN 18:30 → PHX 19:30UA 1507 7h 45m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MAF 09:29 → IAH 11:10UA 6260 · flown by Mesa 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:13UA 1798 7h 44m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MAF 12:01 → IAH 13:55UA 4011 · flown by Mesa 3h 06m Houston IAH 17:01 → PHX 18:08UA 1478 8h 07m 97% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON