Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 5088 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5088 ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest PT 6055 ORF 17:46 → PHL 19:12 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5088 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:23	PHL 07:40	10%	5%	0.7%	85%
AA 5271 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 07:25	PHL 08:41	10%	5%	0.7%	76%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ORF 11:04	PHL 12:28	14%	5%	0.7%	78%
PT 5949 Piedmont	ORF 15:11	PHL 16:30	21%	7%	0.7%	no record
OH 5017 PSA	ORF 13:11	PHL 14:26	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
PT 6055 Piedmont	ORF 17:46	PHL 19:12	22%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON