Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1142 Southwest	ROC 12:31	MCO 15:14	16%	5%	0.9%	no record
B6 1043 JetBlue Flight history →	ROC 14:19	MCO 17:15	22%	10%	3.3%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ROC 06:00 → ATL 08:10DL 1200	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → MCO 12:00DL 664	6h 00m	99%	88%
United Details →	ROC 06:17 → ORD 07:24UA 2008	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 09:12 → MCO 13:13UA 1643	6h 56m	98%	85%
American Details →	ROC 07:23 → CLT 09:25AA 1485	1h 25m Charlotte	CLT 10:50 → MCO 12:34AA 1576	5h 11m	95%	82%
American Details →	ROC 07:05 → PHL 08:32AA 5904 · flown by Piedmont	2h 28m Philadelphia	PHL 11:00 → MCO 13:32AA 3268	6h 27m	97%	81%
American Details →	ROC 06:05 → BOS 07:35AA 4806 · flown by Republic	1h 24m Boston	BOS 08:59 → MCO 12:05AA 2720	6h 00m	97%	80%
American Details →	ROC 05:33 → DCA 06:59AA 5351 · flown by PSA	1h 20m Washington	DCA 08:19 → MCO 10:50AA 2128	5h 17m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	ROC 12:26 → ATL 14:35DL 2511	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	7h 22m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ROC 09:55 → DTW 11:18DL 5240 · flown by Endeavor	2h 42m Detroit	DTW 14:00 → MCO 16:46DL 337	6h 51m	98%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ROC 17:44 → DCA 19:18AA 5457 · flown by PSA	49m Washington	DCA 20:07 → MCO 22:36AA 2139	4h 52m	70%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON