Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4372 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 4372 SMF 06:11 → SAN 07:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 258 SMF 16:31 → SAN 18:13 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4372 Southwest	SMF 06:11	SAN 07:53	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4374 Southwest	SMF 09:06	SAN 10:48	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4373 Southwest	SMF 08:01	SAN 09:43	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4869 Southwest	SMF 10:46	SAN 12:28	21%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2939 Southwest	SMF 11:51	SAN 13:33	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 636 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 06:43	SAN 08:18	22%	3%	1.2%	71%
WN 4768 Southwest	SMF 12:41	SAN 14:23	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
QX 2221 Horizon	SMF 08:08	SAN 09:54	25%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 3209 SkyWest	SMF 10:44	SAN 12:30	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 12:55	SAN 14:41	26%	9%	0.7%	77%
WN 296 Southwest	SMF 15:16	SAN 16:58	28%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3151 Southwest	SMF 13:31	SAN 15:13	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 2218 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	SMF 16:57	SAN 18:43	30%	7%	1.3%	51%
WN 258 Southwest	SMF 16:31	SAN 18:13	37%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON