tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Boston, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic 3h 44m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 13m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643 3h 38m Charlotte CLT 11:35 → BWI 13:03AA 846 7h 04m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:51 → BWI 14:56AA 1629 8h 26m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:57DL 2443 2h 48m Detroit DTW 21:45 → BWI 23:18DL 2715 6h 48m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:27 → BWI 18:23DL 2928 7h 23m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 22:45 → BWI 00:39 +1DL 2590 6h 59m 94% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 11:45 → MIA 14:50AA 525 54m Miami MIA 15:44 → BWI 18:26AA 1634 6h 41m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON