tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1634 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

AA 1634 · MIA → BWI

departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 6:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 160h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Friday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
32% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to BWI?

  1. On time or early
    65%
  2. 15–30 min late
    6%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    10%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    11%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    4%
  6. Cancelled
    4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.