Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 974 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 974 MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1624 MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 974 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 06:20	BWI 08:55	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	31%	12%	1.3%	57%
AA 1634 American Flight history →	MIA 15:44	BWI 18:26	32%	16%	4.1%	66%
WN 2924 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 15:05	BWI 17:45	35%	15%	2.6%	58%
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 15:39	BWI 18:32	36%	19%	3.0%	71%
WN 1624 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 18:50	BWI 21:30	41%	16%	0.9%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON