Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4704 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 4704 ORD 08:00 → SDF 10:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 5412 ORD 14:29 → SDF 17:03 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4704 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:00	SDF 10:36	7%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 5703 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:59	SDF 09:26	10%	5%	1.0%	71%
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 15:51	SDF 18:27	14%	4%	1.0%	86%
UA 5467 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 11:00	SDF 13:35	16%	7%	1.0%	80%
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	16%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:29	SDF 22:04	18%	6%	0.9%	75%
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 17:50	SDF 20:23	18%	6%	0.9%	77%
UA 5412 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:29	SDF 17:03	21%	10%	1.0%	72%
UA 4519 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ORD 16:25	SDF 18:56	34%	11%	5.4%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON