Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 44 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3189 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–44%.

Safest bet that day WN 3189 PBI 07:25 → BWI 09:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 2594 FLL 18:55 → BWI 21:23 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3189 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 07:25	BWI 09:50	3%	1%	0.8%	93%
WN 396 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 06:25	BWI 08:55	4%	1%	0.9%	98%
UA 2169 United Flight history →	FLL 08:40	IAD 11:14	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
WN 974 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 06:20	BWI 08:55	6%	2%	0.8%	91%
AA 491 American Flight history →	MIA 06:00	DCA 08:41	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
WN 1651 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 08:00	BWI 10:30	7%	2%	0.8%	83%
B6 1480 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 06:30	DCA 09:04	9%	3%	1.1%	92%
UA 1421 United Flight history →	FLL 12:13	IAD 14:49	11%	4%	0.7%	89%
AA 1299 American Flight history →	MIA 08:02	DCA 10:38	12%	4%	0.9%	91%
WN 1853 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 10:45	BWI 13:15	15%	3%	0.9%	73%
AA 4431 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PBI 11:19	DCA 13:59	15%	4%	1.2%	75%
UA 2435 United Flight history →	MIA 13:10	IAD 15:53	16%	8%	2.4%	88%
AA 2915 American Flight history →	MIA 09:59	DCA 12:37	17%	5%	0.9%	80%
WN 2535 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 11:40	DCA 14:20	18%	6%	0.8%	78%
AA 1606 American Flight history →	MIA 11:59	DCA 14:44	18%	8%	1.2%	87%
B6 2334 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 10:41	DCA 13:05	19%	9%	1.4%	70%
DL 2888 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:22	DCA 14:05	19%	7%	1.1%	70%
AA 1873 American Flight history →	FLL 11:41	DCA 14:14	20%	7%	1.0%	66%
WN 1072 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 14:40	BWI 17:05	21%	10%	3.6%	88%
F9 4412 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 09:28	BWI 12:10	22%	7%	1.5%	62%
WN 4355 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 14:15	BWI 16:45	22%	9%	1.0%	57%
B6 1680 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 11:42	DCA 14:15	24%	11%	1.2%	69%
AA 3310 American Flight history →	MIA 13:42	DCA 16:26	26%	13%	4.1%	70%
AA 708 American Flight history →	MIA 22:10	DCA 00:49	27%	10%	1.4%	76%
WN 4670 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 16:45	BWI 19:20	28%	12%	1.6%	56%
AA 2897 American Flight history →	MIA 20:30	DCA 23:09	29%	11%	1.6%	74%
AA 2281 American Flight history →	PBI 15:25	DCA 17:58	29%	14%	6.3%	58%
WN 3191 Southwest Flight history →	PBI 19:05	BWI 21:35	29%	16%	2.5%	63%
AA 2648 American Flight history →	MIA 19:05	DCA 21:48	29%	13%	1.3%	63%
AA 3216 American Flight history →	MIA 21:12	BWI 23:52	31%	12%	1.3%	57%
B6 2094 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 12:30	BWI 14:58	31%	12%	1.4%	52%
AA 667 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	DCA 20:59	31%	13%	1.3%	51%
AA 3138 American Flight history →	MIA 15:30	DCA 18:13	32%	15%	4.2%	62%
AA 1634 American Flight history →	MIA 15:44	BWI 18:26	32%	16%	4.1%	66%
B6 24 JetBlue Flight history →	PBI 14:32	DCA 16:59	34%	14%	4.6%	58%
WN 999 Southwest Flight history →	FLL 17:50	BWI 20:20	35%	13%	1.6%	15%
B6 2080 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:55	DCA 23:33	35%	18%	4.3%	57%
WN 2924 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 15:05	BWI 17:45	35%	15%	2.6%	58%
F9 2940 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 15:39	BWI 18:32	36%	19%	3.0%	71%
F9 2960 Frontier Flight history →	FLL 17:00	IAD 19:38	37%	16%	2.5%	54%
B6 1880 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:47	DCA 21:25	40%	19%	2.1%	61%
WN 1624 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 18:50	BWI 21:30	41%	16%	0.9%	40%
B6 2994 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 20:59	BWI 23:27	42%	20%	4.3%	36%
B6 2594 JetBlue Flight history →	FLL 18:55	BWI 21:23	44%	21%	2.8%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON