Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Alaska via San Diego, leaving 11:16, is the safest bet: 45% chance of reaching Oakland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DCA 11:16 → SAN 13:32AS 15	3h 23m San Diego	SAN 16:55 → OAK 18:33AS 2190 · flown by Horizon	10h 17m	99%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DCA 17:00 → SEA 19:59AS 3	46m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → OAK 22:48AS 706	8h 48m	66%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON