tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 15 Alaska Flight history → DCA 11:16 SAN 13:32 20% 3% 0.8% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Washington). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → MSP 07:35DL 1193 3h 54m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 10h 25m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:02 → JFK 07:25DL 5802 · flown by Republic 1h 15m New York JFK 08:40 → SAN 11:32DL 683 8h 30m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DCA 16:45 → LAX 19:19DL 392 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest 9h 57m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DCA 05:54 → DTW 07:26DL 2869 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492 7h 33m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → DCA 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 410 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → SAN 11:25DL 843 8h 25m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DCA 15:07 → MSP 16:56DL 2983 1h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145 8h 08m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 06:00 → IAH 08:13UA 1450 1h 17m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 51m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → DCA 08:20 → IAH 10:41UA 697 3h 49m Houston IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114 10h 28m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DCA 10:01 → DFW 12:20AA 795 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:11 → SAN 14:19AA 1769 7h 18m 71% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON