Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 1425 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–47%.

Safest bet that day F9 1425 DFW 07:17 → SAN 08:39 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time Riskiest AA 1511 DFW 20:26 → SAN 21:33 · 47% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1425 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 07:17	SAN 08:39	24%	9%	1.1%	66%
AA 1794 American	DFW 07:15	SAN 08:26	28%	5%	1.0%	no record
AS 690 Alaska	DFW 08:26	SAN 09:25	31%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 545 Alaska	DFW 15:23	SAN 16:45	33%	10%	0.8%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	DFW 09:22	SAN 10:33	36%	7%	1.0%	73%
AA 3109 American	DFW 11:04	SAN 12:11	40%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 1769 American	DFW 13:11	SAN 14:19	41%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 1789 American	DFW 17:50	SAN 18:59	45%	14%	2.4%	no record
AA 2266 American	DFW 16:45	SAN 17:55	45%	13%	1.7%	no record
AA 1243 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	SAN 20:03	47%	15%	2.9%	58%
AA 1511 American	DFW 20:26	SAN 21:33	47%	13%	2.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON