Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2347 at 05:39 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2347 LAS 05:39 → OAK 07:13 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2351 LAS 19:44 → OAK 21:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2347 Southwest	LAS 05:39	OAK 07:13	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2348 Southwest	LAS 09:21	OAK 11:09	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1494 Southwest	LAS 12:36	OAK 14:19	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
F9 2045 Frontier	LAS 10:40	OAK 12:26	18%	9%	2.0%	no record
WN 5011 Southwest	LAS 13:56	OAK 15:39	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 1078 Southwest	LAS 15:12	OAK 16:47	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 8895 Delta	LAS 17:24	OAK 19:01	27%	13%	1.5%	no record
WN 581 Southwest	LAS 18:46	OAK 20:19	32%	12%	2.8%	no record
WN 2351 Southwest	LAS 19:44	OAK 21:20	33%	13%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON