tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:20, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 35% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3010 American MIA 20:13 SAN 22:33 38% 10% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 10h 18m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:02DL 1249 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 10h 08m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 48m Houston IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114 10h 00m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:10 → ATL 14:20DL 1510 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712 10h 20m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:15 → CLT 08:21AA 3004 2h 54m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 9h 50m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:37 → ATL 12:45DL 2836 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SAN 17:10DL 924 9h 33m 96% 68%
UnitedDetails → MIA 12:29 → IAH 14:23UA 470 2h 03m Houston IAH 16:26 → SAN 17:54UA 2798 8h 25m 92% 68%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03UA 1257 3h 12m San Francisco SFO 14:15 → SAN 16:02UA 1668 11h 02m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:45 → DEN 18:24UA 2852 56m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 8h 01m 65% 48%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:00 → ORD 19:53AA 3056 52m Chicago ORD 20:45 → SAN 23:23AA 2994 9h 23m 57% 37%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:37 → DFW 19:36AA 2828 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:26 → SAN 21:33AA 1511 6h 56m 35% 16%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON