tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 3384 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 09:39 SAN 11:15 19% 10% 4.8% 91%worse than usual
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 14:53 SAN 16:29 23% 9% 3.0% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MRY 06:04 → PHX 08:14AA 6348 · flown by SkyWest 2h 26m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → SAN 12:11AA 2122 6h 07m 100% 73%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 8h 17m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 19:01 → SAN 19:53UA 1100 5h 59m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:49 → SFO 09:38UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m San Francisco SFO 12:21 → SAN 14:08UA 1257 5h 19m 94% 65%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:49 → PHX 14:55AA 3527 · flown by Envoy 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 17:00 → SAN 18:24AA 480 5h 35m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:36 → DFW 18:17AA 2879 2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:26 → SAN 21:33AA 1511 8h 57m 89% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON