Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: 9X 501 at 06:38 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–22%.

Safest bet that day 9X 501 OGG 06:38 → KOA 08:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1250 OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9X 501 Southern Airways Express	OGG 06:38	KOA 08:05	4%	2%	1.3%	no record
WN 3166 Southwest	OGG 13:30	KOA 14:29	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
AS 1030 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:31	KOA 11:21	13%	3%	0.8%	77%
9X 503 Southern Airways Express	OGG 16:54	KOA 18:02	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
AS 1140 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:03	KOA 14:39	21%	5%	1.0%	72%
AS 1250 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:54	KOA 16:28	22%	5%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON