Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4764 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4764 RDU 08:05 → MCO 09:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1111 RDU 16:23 → MCO 18:08 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4764 Southwest	RDU 08:05	MCO 09:53	8%	2%	4.7%	no record
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:00	MCO 07:47	8%	3%	4.8%	91%
WN 3566 Southwest	RDU 13:11	MCO 15:11	13%	6%	1.4%	no record
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 13:03	MCO 14:54	15%	5%	1.6%	84%
WN 519 Southwest	RDU 18:21	MCO 20:21	17%	8%	1.4%	no record
F9 1233 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 21:27	MCO 23:28	18%	11%	2.8%	68%
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 16:23	MCO 18:08	25%	11%	2.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON