Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: YX 4443 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day YX 4443 STL 08:50 → LGA 12:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 235 STL 16:47 → LGA 20:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4443 Republic	STL 08:50	LGA 12:34	7%	3%	1.3%	no record
WN 186 Southwest	STL 08:57	LGA 12:28	8%	1%	1.1%	no record
WN 235 Southwest	STL 16:47	LGA 20:18	19%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 07:05	LGA 10:35	14%	5%	5.1%	86%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	STL 12:35	LGA 16:09	26%	14%	5.4%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON