Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2625 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–46%.

Safest bet that day UA 2625 DEN 09:35 → SAT 12:43 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 2607 DEN 19:20 → SAT 22:34 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2625 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SAT 12:43	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
WN 376 Southwest	DEN 10:55	SAT 14:09	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1022 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	SAT 16:55	21%	9%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
OO 5598 SkyWest	DEN 20:36	SAT 00:27	28%	14%	0.9%	no record
WN 4443 Southwest	DEN 15:10	SAT 18:24	35%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2819 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	SAT 20:54	37%	17%	0.6%	61%
F9 2356 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:30	SAT 18:44	39%	13%	0.7%	82%worse than usual
WN 487 Southwest	DEN 16:45	SAT 20:03	42%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 2607 Southwest	DEN 19:20	SAT 22:34	46%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON