tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via LAX, leaving 13:00, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 218 United Flight history → HNL 16:00 ORD 05:05 19% 7% 0.9% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 5 h ahead of Honolulu). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:00 → LAX 21:23UA 1157 2h 07m Los Angeles LAX 23:30 → ORD 05:46 +1UA 1962 11h 46m 93% 68%
UnitedDetails → HNL 13:22 → SFO 21:18UA 650 2h 12m San Francisco SFO 23:30 → ORD 05:57 +1UA 368 11h 35m 97% 67%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:10 → SFO 15:15UA 373 3h 34m San Francisco SFO 18:49 → ORD 01:00 +1UA 1958 12h 50m 96% 65%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 11:24 → SEA 20:13AS 267 3h 27m Seattle SEA 23:40 → ORD 05:39 +1AS 285 13h 15m 98% 65%
AlaskaDetails → HNL 06:59 → SEA 15:31AS 90 2h 17m Seattle SEA 17:48 → ORD 23:59AS 538 12h 00m 97% 61%
DeltaDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:33DL 422 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 17:15 → ORD 23:18DL 1634 11h 18m 95% 60%
AmericanDetails → HNL 13:46 → LAX 22:27AA 162 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 23:38 → ORD 05:48 +1AA 3161 11h 02m 81% 57%
UnitedDetails → HNL 07:00 → LAX 15:32UA 1221 1h 09m Los Angeles LAX 16:41 → ORD 22:43UA 2780 10h 43m 92% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON