Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 35 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3884 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3884 LAX 06:20 → MDW 12:31 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3151 SNA 15:07 → ORD 21:14 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3884 Southwest	LAX 06:20	MDW 12:31	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3270 Southwest	ONT 00:05	MDW 05:55	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 580 United Flight history →	LAX 05:32	ORD 11:50	9%	4%	0.7%	98%
WN 2491 Southwest	LAX 00:05	MDW 06:07	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2226 United Flight history →	ONT 06:57	ORD 12:58	12%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 383 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	ORD 12:32	12%	6%	1.0%	91%
UA 1941 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	ORD 13:14	15%	7%	0.7%	91%
WN 3205 Southwest	BUR 10:50	MDW 16:49	17%	4%	4.2%	no record
DL 967 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:40	ORD 13:46	23%	9%	1.2%	85%
UA 1946 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	ORD 14:35	23%	10%	0.9%	85%
UA 1962 United Flight history →	LAX 23:30	ORD 05:46	24%	8%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
UA 1328 United	LAX 23:10	ORD 05:21	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
AA 1598 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	ORD 14:27	25%	11%	2.5%	90%worse than usual
AA 3161 American	LAX 23:38	ORD 05:48	26%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 2267 Southwest	LGB 12:25	MDW 18:21	27%	5%	2.7%	no record
UA 353 United Flight history →	LAX 22:35	ORD 04:51	27%	8%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AA 991 American	LAX 22:52	ORD 04:59	28%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 08:50	ORD 15:13	29%	12%	1.5%	88%worse than usual
DL 1634 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:15	ORD 23:18	33%	15%	0.7%	67%
AA 1433 American Flight history →	LAX 17:50	ORD 00:07	34%	14%	1.2%	62%
WN 2497 Southwest	LAX 12:05	MDW 18:18	34%	8%	2.5%	no record
WN 3454 Southwest	LAX 15:40	MDW 21:43	35%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2998 American Flight history →	LAX 09:29	ORD 15:37	35%	17%	2.2%	71%
UA 2113 United Flight history →	LAX 10:45	ORD 17:04	38%	19%	1.0%	78%worse than usual
AA 1998 American Flight history →	LAX 17:21	ORD 23:34	38%	19%	1.1%	42%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:24	ORD 17:35	39%	19%	0.8%	66%
UA 2780 United	LAX 16:41	ORD 22:42	41%	18%	0.7%	no record
UA 2794 United Flight history →	LAX 15:15	ORD 21:23	43%	23%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AA 3075 American	LAX 10:34	ORD 16:55	44%	20%	2.2%	no record
UA 2487 United Flight history →	LAX 14:26	ORD 20:40	44%	24%	0.9%	69%worse than usual
UA 457 United Flight history →	LAX 12:50	ORD 19:05	48%	23%	0.8%	69%worse than usual
AA 3192 American	LAX 13:21	ORD 19:30	49%	27%	1.5%	no record
AA 2891 American Flight history →	LAX 11:47	ORD 18:06	49%	25%	1.6%	74%worse than usual
AA 2285 American Flight history →	SNA 11:43	ORD 18:02	51%	20%	1.5%	68%worse than usual
AA 3151 American	SNA 15:07	ORD 21:14	56%	22%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON