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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 24 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 580 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:32 → ORD 11:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest AA 2891 LAX 11:47 → ORD 18:06 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 580 United Flight history → LAX 05:32 ORD 11:50 9% 4% 0.7% 98%
AA 383 American Flight history → LAX 06:05 ORD 12:32 12% 6% 1.0% 91%
UA 1941 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 ORD 13:14 15% 7% 0.7% 91%
DL 967 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:40 ORD 13:46 23% 9% 1.2% 85%
UA 1946 United Flight history → LAX 08:15 ORD 14:35 23% 10% 0.9% 85%
UA 1962 United Flight history → LAX 23:30 ORD 05:46 24% 8% 0.7% 88%worse than usual
UA 1328 United LAX 23:10 ORD 05:21 25% 9% 0.7% no record
AA 1598 American Flight history → LAX 08:00 ORD 14:27 25% 11% 2.5% 90%worse than usual
AA 3161 American LAX 23:38 ORD 05:48 26% 10% 1.0% no record
UA 353 United Flight history → LAX 22:35 ORD 04:51 27% 8% 0.7% 90%worse than usual
AA 991 American LAX 22:52 ORD 04:59 28% 9% 1.0% no record
DL 1634 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:15 ORD 23:18 33% 15% 0.7% 67%
AA 1433 American Flight history → LAX 17:50 ORD 00:07 34% 14% 1.2% 62%
AA 2998 American Flight history → LAX 09:29 ORD 15:37 35% 17% 2.2% 71%
UA 2113 United Flight history → LAX 10:45 ORD 17:04 38% 19% 1.0% 78%worse than usual
AA 1998 American Flight history → LAX 17:21 ORD 23:34 38% 19% 1.1% 42%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:24 ORD 17:35 39% 19% 0.8% 66%
UA 2780 United LAX 16:41 ORD 22:42 41% 18% 0.7% no record
UA 2794 United Flight history → LAX 15:15 ORD 21:23 43% 23% 0.9% 91%worse than usual
AA 3075 American LAX 10:34 ORD 16:55 44% 20% 2.2% no record
UA 2487 United Flight history → LAX 14:26 ORD 20:40 44% 24% 0.9% 69%worse than usual
UA 457 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 ORD 19:05 48% 23% 0.8% 69%worse than usual
AA 3192 American LAX 13:21 ORD 19:30 49% 27% 1.5% no record
AA 2891 American Flight history → LAX 11:47 ORD 18:06 49% 25% 1.6% 74%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 5h 55m 84% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON