Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 41–53%.

Safest bet that day UA 307 MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1237 MSP 19:04 → ORD 20:37 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	5%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 1547 United	MSP 06:08	ORD 07:39	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1011 American	MSP 06:08	ORD 07:45	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:30	12%	4%	0.8%	83%
UA 2000 United	MSP 09:43	ORD 11:18	14%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 10:31	ORD 12:16	14%	6%	1.1%	89%
UA 2773 United	MSP 08:01	ORD 09:35	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:00	ORD 11:32	20%	5%	0.9%	72%
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	21%	9%	0.8%	73%
MQ 3551 Envoy	MSP 10:53	ORD 12:27	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 2790 United	MSP 13:16	ORD 15:03	27%	16%	1.2%	no record
AA 2472 American	MSP 19:54	ORD 21:42	41%	20%	1.2%	no record
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:36	ORD 17:17	41%	18%	1.8%	57%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:16	ORD 16:58	43%	19%	1.6%	55%
DL 2130 Delta Flight history →	MSP 17:45	ORD 19:30	45%	20%	1.6%	61%
DL 1563 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	ORD 21:52	45%	18%	1.3%	68%worse than usual
SY 261 Sun Country	MSP 14:55	ORD 16:28	45%	20%	4.3%	no record
AA 2448 American	MSP 14:24	ORD 16:01	46%	19%	1.9%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	MSP 17:59	ORD 19:33	50%	18%	3.6%	no record
UA 424 United	MSP 16:47	ORD 18:22	51%	22%	1.3%	no record
UA 1237 United Flight history →	MSP 19:04	ORD 20:37	53%	22%	1.3%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON