Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1009 United Flight history →	SBA 12:37	ORD 19:00	47%	22%	1.2%	59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Barbara). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SBA 05:00 → DEN 08:27UA 2865	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:35 → ORD 13:15UA 2329	6h 15m	95%	75%
United Details →	SBA 13:58 → SFO 15:08UA 2305	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 18:49 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958	9h 01m	98%	69%
United Details →	SBA 06:00 → LAX 07:03UA 4649 · flown by SkyWest	1h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 08:15 → ORD 14:35UA 1946	6h 35m	93%	67%
United Details →	SBA 06:15 → SFO 07:25UA 2340	50m San Francisco	SFO 08:15 → ORD 14:50UA 1568	6h 35m	80%	58%
American Details →	SBA 12:30 → PHX 14:14AA 2928	3h 44m Phoenix	PHX 17:58 → ORD 23:37AA 2569	9h 07m	92%	54%
United Details →	SBA 12:48 → DEN 16:16UA 1790	3h 01m Denver	DEN 19:17 → ORD 22:50UA 2258	8h 02m	95%	51%
Delta Details →	SBA 12:40 → SLC 15:41DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413	6h 49m	96%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SBA 14:38 → LAX 15:49UA 5994 · flown by SkyWest	52m Los Angeles	LAX 16:41 → ORD 22:42UA 2780	6h 04m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON