tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3698 at 12:10 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 52%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3698 Republic SRQ 12:10 ORD 14:23 30% 10% 2.5% no record
UA 1744 United SRQ 16:20 ORD 18:28 52% 25% 2.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 23m Atlanta ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147 5h 10m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:08 → ORD 12:20DL 2894 6h 16m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 27m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → ORD 11:00AA 1038 5h 39m 96% 75%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 31m Newark EWR 10:24 → ORD 12:06UA 1525 7h 06m 96% 74%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 58m Miami MIA 08:22 → ORD 10:49AA 3076 5h 27m 91% 73%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 6h 35m 93% 62%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412 3h 15m New York LGA 20:45 → ORD 22:36DL 2806 9h 06m 97% 59%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 15:50 → ORD 17:12DL 2738 7h 11m 98% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON