Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2553 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2553 PHX 06:45 → MSP 11:50 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2820 PHX 19:01 → MSP 00:08 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2553 Delta Flight history →	PHX 06:45	MSP 11:50	5%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	PHX 11:48	MSP 16:55	14%	4%	0.8%	92%
DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	PHX 09:42	MSP 14:45	15%	5%	1.4%	88%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	PHX 17:17	MSP 22:29	19%	8%	0.7%	84%
AA 408 American Flight history →	PHX 08:39	MSP 13:48	19%	7%	1.8%	85%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	PHX 13:51	MSP 19:00	20%	6%	0.7%	81%
SY 604 Sun Country	PHX 10:43	MSP 15:38	25%	8%	1.9%	no record
SY 608 Sun Country	PHX 18:48	MSP 23:55	26%	10%	1.7%	no record
AA 2820 American Flight history →	PHX 19:01	MSP 00:08	30%	10%	0.9%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON