Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
- Current state
- Resolved: closed without a new report (The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.)
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 6
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 5 cancellations among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 5 of the 84 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (6%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 7:00 PM EST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~5.4 over 84 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Sun Nov 1, 7:00 PM EST · 21.5 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3 Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 01:31 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 8 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
What changed: about 5 → 8 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 85 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 11:00 AM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.4 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 11:00 AM EST · 6.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 16:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 9 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
What changed: about 8 → 9 expected cancellations since the 11:00 AM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 9 of the 85 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (10%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 12:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.8 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 12:00 PM EST · 5.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 17:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 8 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
What changed: about 9 → 8 expected cancellations since the 12:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 8 of the 85 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (9%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 1:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~8.0 over 85 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 1:00 PM EST · 3.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 19:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
De-escalation Forecast
Model lowers expected cancellations to about 3 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
What changed: about 8 → 3 expected cancellations since the 1:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 3 of the 86 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (4%). With calm weather it would expect about 1. From the 2:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~3.1 over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 2:00 PM EST · 2.6 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 20:26 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Model raises expected cancellations to about 6 among Fort Lauderdale departures 6–9 PM Monday
What changed: about 3 → 6 expected cancellations since the 2:00 PM EST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 6 of the 86 departures scheduled 6–9 PM Monday to be cancelled (7%). With calm weather it would expect about 3. From the 5:00 PM EST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target FLL departures 6–9 PM 2026-11-02 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~6.1 over 86 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Mon Nov 2, 5:00 PM EST · 0.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-02 22:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?
Closed Mon Nov 2, 6:01 PM EST: The forecast window has started; measured delays are reported separately as observed items.