Updated model now expects about 15 among Orange County departures 6–9 AM Saturday
- Current state
- Developing
- Started
- Latest activity
- Updates
- 2
Tailodds reports what the FAA publishes, what we measure and what our model forecasts. It doesn’t control airport operations or change bookings; check with your airline about your trip.
Updates oldest first
-
Initial Forecast
Model expects about 11 cancellations among Orange County departures 6–9 AM Saturday
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 11 of the 32 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (36%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~11.4 over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 7:00 PM PST · 10.0 h ahead Model version famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 03:58 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful? -
Escalation Forecast
Updated model now expects about 15 among Orange County departures 6–9 AM Saturday
What changed: about 11 → 15 expected cancellations since the 7:00 PM PST forecast
Adding up each flight’s cancellation probability, Tailodds’ model expects about 15 of the 32 departures scheduled 6–9 AM Saturday to be cancelled (46%). With calm weather it would expect about 0. From the 8:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of cancellations.
Evidence for this update
Target SNA departures 6–9 AM 2026-11-14 (cancelled) Expected cancellations ~14.6 over 32 flights Forecast cycle · horizon Fri Nov 13, 8:00 PM PST · 9.0 h ahead Model version famB-sd-v4i (changed since the previous update) Source event time Ingested Published here (2026-11-14 04:57 UTC) Sources Tailodds forecast Provenance forecast_blocks forecast-blocks-v1 · config 2026-10-17.1 · writer template-v1 Was this useful?