Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: end 8:15 PM EDT → 8:30 PM EDT; reason now “STAFFING”
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Newark (EWR), citing “STAFFING”. Flights to EWR are held at their departure airports until 8:30 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: 54% → 63% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 63%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: range 46–60 → 61–75 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 61–75 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
What changed: end 7:15 PM EDT → 8:15 PM EDT
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Newark (EWR), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to EWR are held at their departure airports until 8:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: range 31–45 → 46–60 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 46–60 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
What changed: range 16–30 → 31–45 min
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 31–45 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground stop for flights bound for Newark (EWR), citing “thunderstorms”. Flights to EWR are held at their departure airports until 7:15 PM EDT. The FAA lists the chance of an extension as “MEDIUM”.
What changed: departure delays no longer listed
FAA-reported departure delays at Newark (EWR) no longer appear in the FAA’s airport status as of 5:11 PM EDT, in 3 consecutive successful checks. It was first listed at 5:09 PM EDT.
The FAA’s airport status reports departure delays of 16–30 min at Newark (EWR), citing “TM Initiatives:SWAP:WX”. The FAA describes the trend as “Increasing”.
The FAA’s airport status lists a ground delay program for flights to Newark (EWR), citing “other”; it gives an average delay of 72 min and a maximum of 137 min. Departures to EWR are given later takeoff times at their origin airports.
Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 54%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
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