tailodds FORECAST

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Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.

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Passenger events at your flight's airports

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Event type
Evidence
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Metro areas

Departures: events affecting flights leaving the airport. Arrivals: flights going to it.

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“Today” and dates above start at midnight in this zone. Each item shows its airport’s local time; hover a time for UTC.

Clear
Type: Delay ×Airport: EWR × Clear filters
Latest per event All updates
EDT, Oct 16 16 min ago
Forecast 63% Major Developing Escalation Delay EWR departures

Model raises Newark departure delay risk 9 PM–midnight Friday to 63%

What changed: 54% → 63% since the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (same model, same window)

Tailodds’ model gives the 33 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 63% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 38%. From the 6:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 63%Horizon 1.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View EWR
EDT, Oct 16 3 h ago
Forecast 54% Significant Developing Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 54% delay risk for Newark departures 9 PM–midnight Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 32 departures scheduled from Newark 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 54% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 54%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (2) View EWR
EDT, Oct 16 3 h ago
Forecast 57% Significant Resolved Delay EWR departures

Model forecasts 57% delay risk for Newark departures 6–9 PM Friday

Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from Newark 6–9 PM Friday an average 57% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 37%. From the 2:00 PM EDT forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Probability 57%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i

Source: Tailodds forecast Timeline (1) View EWR

Every published update, newest first.

Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?

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Matches: Type: Delay · Airport: EWR. Alerts arrive as in-app notifications here; email isn’t switched on for this site.

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