Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 14/0116 - 14/0130 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER NATIONWIDE GROUND STOP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2245 - 14/0400 DESTINATION AIRPORT:ALL FACILITIES INCLUDED: ALL EXPECT UPDATE:0400Z REASON: COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE REMARKS: THE FAA COMMAND CENTER GROUND STOP REMAINS IN EFFECT. AS ENROUTE FACILITIES RECOVER, FLIGHTS WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEPART THROUGH COORDINATION WITH THE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEM COMMAND CENTER.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
What changed: 69% → 82% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 82% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 82%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 69% → 83% since the 2:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 83% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 83%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 65% → 42%
Of 12 arrivals that landed between 2:37 PM and 3:37 PM CST, 5 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:37 PM–3:37 PM CSTSample 12 flightsLate 42%Typical 22%
What changed: late share 45% → 65%
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 2:16 PM and 3:16 PM CST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:16 PM–3:16 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 65%Typical 22%
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 6.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 69%Horizon 3.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 0.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 20 arrivals that landed between 1:50 PM and 2:50 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 1:50 PM–2:50 PM CSTSample 20 flightsLate 45%Typical 22%
Of the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:44 PM and 3:14 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 5 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:44 PM–3:14 PM CSTTight turns 11 of 24Share 46%
What changed: late share 80% → 54%
Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:22 PM–11:22 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 54%Typical 45%
What changed: 62% → 75% since the 4:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 75%Horizon 0.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:47 PM–8:47 PM CSTSample 14 flightsLate 57%Typical 22%
What changed: 73% → 62% since the 3:00 PM CST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 62%Horizon 4.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: late share 69% → 80%
Of 15 departures that took off between 3:22 PM and 4:22 PM CST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:22 PM–4:22 PM CSTSample 15 flightsLate 80%Typical 35%
Of 16 departures that took off between 3:02 PM and 4:02 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:02 PM–4:02 PM CSTSample 16 flightsLate 69%Typical 35%
Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 73%Horizon 5.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 73%Horizon 2.1 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:46 PM and 3:16 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 1:46 PM–3:16 PM CSTTight turns 9 of 25Share 36%
Of 11 aircraft that landed at Hobby (HOU) between 7:54 PM and 8:54 PM CST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.4 minutes; the median was 9.6 minutes. Usually 2% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 7:54 PM–8:54 PM CSTSample 11 arrivalsSlow 36%Usually 2%
What changed: late share 46% at worst → 24% now
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 7:26 PM and 8:26 PM CST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 7:26 PM–8:26 PM CSTSample 17 flightsLate 24%Typical 22%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 6:12 PM and 7:12 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 6:12 PM–7:12 PM CSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 22%
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