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The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.

Tailodds’ model gives the 17 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 45%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Friday an average 69% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 3–6 PM Friday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 46%. From the 2:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Of 20 arrivals that landed between 1:50 PM and 2:50 PM CST, 9 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Of the 26 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:44 PM and 3:14 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 24. For 11 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 5 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Of 13 departures that took off between 10:22 PM and 11:22 PM CST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 45% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 75% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 52%. From the 8:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Of 14 arrivals that landed between 7:47 PM and 8:47 PM CST, 8 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Thursday an average 62% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 47%. From the 4:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Of 16 departures that took off between 3:02 PM and 4:02 PM CST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 35% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 3 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Tailodds’ model gives the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby 6–9 PM Thursday an average 73% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 50%. From the 3:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Of the 27 departures scheduled from Hobby (HOU) between 1:46 PM and 3:16 PM CST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 25. For 9 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into HOU is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 2 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.

Of 11 aircraft that landed at Hobby (HOU) between 7:54 PM and 8:54 PM CST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 14 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 4.4 minutes; the median was 9.6 minutes. Usually 2% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.

Of 13 arrivals that landed between 6:12 PM and 7:12 PM CST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 22% of arrivals at Hobby arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Tailodds’ model gives the 29 departures scheduled from Hobby noon–3 PM Tuesday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 26%. From the 2:00 AM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.

Of 15 departures that took off between 8:30 PM and 9:30 PM CST, 8 left at least 15 minutes late. Hobby typically sees 39% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.

Tailodds’ model gives the 16 departures scheduled from Hobby 9 PM–midnight Monday an average 60% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 36%. From the 5:00 PM CST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.