Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 62 minLightning 222 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 2 minFAA flight data 2 min
FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (222 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:16 AM–1:16 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 18%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:47 PM–12:47 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View LAX
Of 39 departures that took off between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:00 PM–12:00 AM PSTSample 39 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 183 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of the 54 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 9:52 PM and 11:22 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 40. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 9:52 PM–11:22 PM PSTTight turns 1 of 40Share 2%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:24 PM and 9:24 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of the 44 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 8:29 PM and 9:59 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 30. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 8:29 PM–9:59 PM PSTTight turns 8 of 30Share 27%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 39 departures that took off between 7:09 PM and 8:09 PM PST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 36 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 9:51 AM and 10:51 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 5 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 9.1 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 9:51 AM–10:51 AM PSTSample 36 arrivalsSlow 14%Usually 9%
Of 38 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 8:43 AM and 9:43 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 14 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 10 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 8:43 AM–9:43 AM PSTSample 38 arrivalsSlow 37%Usually 9%
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 8%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:33 AM and 6:33 AM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:33 AM–6:33 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 13 departures that took off between 12:33 AM and 1:33 AM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:33 AM–1:33 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 46%Typical 21%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 21 arrivals that landed between 10:29 PM and 11:29 PM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of 37 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 10:05 AM and 11:05 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 6 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 6.8 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:05 AM–11:05 AM PSTSample 37 arrivalsSlow 16%Usually 9%
Of 37 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 8:52 AM and 9:52 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 14 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 12.5 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
Landed 8:52 AM–9:52 AM PSTSample 37 arrivalsSlow 38%Usually 9%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 25%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 35 arrivals that landed between 10:04 PM and 11:04 PM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Of the 47 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 8:50 PM and 10:20 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 40. For 3 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 8:50 PM–10:20 PM PSTTight turns 3 of 40Share 8%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX
Of 43 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of the 43 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 7:48 PM and 9:18 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 32. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
Next 7:48 PM–9:18 PM PSTTight turns 8 of 32Share 25%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesTimeline (2)View LAX