Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Live · checked FAA national advisories 4 minFAA NAS status 1 minForecast cycle 88 minLightning <1 minWeather observations 1 minFAA surface data 1 minFAA flight data 2 min
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2053 - 14/0400 DUE TO EXTRAORDINARY CIRCUMSTANCES AND FOR REASONS OF SAFETY. ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
The FAA issued this advisory: “EVENT TIME: 13/2030 - 14/0500 THE ATCSCC HAS ACTIVATED THE DIVERSION RECOVERY TOOL FOR ALL AIRPORTS. CUSTOMERS SHOULD ENSURE THAT DVRSN IS INCLUDED IN FLIGHT PLAN REMARKS OF DIVERTED AIRCRAFT. NOTE THAT IF THERE IS A GROUND DELAY PROGRAM OR GROUND STOP IN EFFECT FOR THE DESTINATION AIRPORT DIVERTED FLIGHTS ARE NOT AUTOMATICALLY EXEMPT AND WILL STILL RECEIVE AN EDCT. UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTIFIED, DIVERSION RECOVERY WILL CLOSE AT THE END OF THE EVENT TIME SPECIFIED IN THIS ADVISORY.” This is an advisory bulletin; its text defines the affected flights and time period.
▼ 55% → 52% since the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 52% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 12:00 PM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 39 arrivals that landed between 11:41 AM and 12:41 PM PST, 16 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
1 update · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
▲ 50% → 55% since the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 97 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 45% → 58% since the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 126 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Friday an average 58% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 33%. From the 10:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 39 departures that took off between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM PST, 27 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 10 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 29 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 9:20 AM and 10:20 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 10 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 11.4 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why.
▲ 47% → 55% since the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 115 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Friday an average 55% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
▲ 46% → 56% since the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model changed)
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Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Friday an average 56% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 9:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). The model changed since the previous item (from famA-fc-v3), so some or all of this change comes from the new model rather than new information. This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 40 departures that took off between 8:33 AM and 9:33 AM PST, 21 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 17% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 9 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 1 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 39 departures that took off between 11:00 PM and 12:00 AM PST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 183 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of the 54 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 9:52 PM and 11:22 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 40. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:24 PM and 9:24 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of the 44 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 8:29 PM and 9:59 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 30. For 8 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 1 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight plans and arrival estimates against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Of 39 departures that took off between 7:09 PM and 8:09 PM PST, 18 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 7 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
2 updates · Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesOpen event ›View LAX
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 36 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 9:51 AM and 10:51 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 5 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 9.1 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.