Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Partly stale · checked FAA NAS status 223 hstaleForecast cycle 67 minLightning 223 hstaleWeather observations no datastaleFAA surface data 6 minFAA flight data 7 min
FAA NAS status is stale (223 h old).
No FAA restriction can start or end on the wire until it is fresh again.
Lightning is stale (223 h old).
Lightning items are paused; thunderstorm items still come from official observations.
Weather observations is stale.
Weather items are paused until it is fresh again; missing observations never end a weather event.
Of 15 departures that took off between 12:16 AM and 1:16 AM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 18% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 28% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 12:16 AM–1:16 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 27%Typical 18%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:47 PM and 12:47 AM PST, 10 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:47 PM–12:47 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 62%Typical 19%
Source: Tailodds measurement of FAA flight data against airline schedulesTimeline (1)View LAX
Tailodds’ model gives the 94 departures scheduled from LAX 9 PM–midnight Friday an average 50% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 183 departures scheduled from LAX 9 AM–noon Friday an average 40% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 20%. From the 10:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 40%Horizon 10.1 hModel famA-fc-v3+famB-sd-v4i
Of the 54 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 9:52 PM and 11:22 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 40. For 1 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 9:52 PM–11:22 PM PSTTight turns 1 of 40Share 2%
Of 24 departures that took off between 8:24 PM and 9:24 PM PST, 7 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 8 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Tailodds’ model gives the 111 departures scheduled from LAX 6–9 PM Friday an average 47% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 28%. From the 7:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 108 departures scheduled from LAX 3–6 PM Friday an average 46% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 27%. From the 4:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Tailodds’ model gives the 121 departures scheduled from LAX noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 24%. From the 1:00 PM PST forecast (model famA-fc-v3). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Of 36 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 9:51 AM and 10:51 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 5 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 9.1 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 9:51 AM–10:51 AM PSTSample 36 arrivalsSlow 14%Usually 9%
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:49 AM and 6:49 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:49 AM–6:49 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 5%Typical 8%
Of 17 arrivals that landed between 5:33 AM and 6:33 AM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:33 AM–6:33 AM PSTSample 17 flightsLate 18%Typical 19%
Of 37 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 10:05 AM and 11:05 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 6 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.8 minutes; the median was 6.8 minutes. Usually 9% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 17% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:05 AM–11:05 AM PSTSample 37 arrivalsSlow 16%Usually 9%
Of 16 arrivals that landed between 11:40 PM and 12:40 AM PST, 4 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:40 PM–12:40 AM PSTSample 16 flightsLate 25%Typical 19%
Of the 47 departures scheduled from LAX (LAX) between 8:50 PM and 10:20 PM PST, FAA flight plans name the aircraft for 40. For 3 of those, the aircraft’s previous flight into LAX is due at the gate less than 35 minutes before the scheduled departure, or after it (FAA arrival times or estimates plus the airport’s typical taxi time); 0 of those inbound flights have not taken off yet. Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data; it does not mean each of these departures will leave late. The tight share has stayed at or below 12% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with current data.
Next 8:50 PM–10:20 PM PSTTight turns 3 of 40Share 8%
Of 43 arrivals that landed between 7:32 PM and 8:32 PM PST, 11 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 28 departures that took off between 2:27 PM and 3:27 PM PST, 6 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 25% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 2 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 32 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Of 18 arrivals that landed between 5:21 AM and 6:21 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 32 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:21 AM–6:21 AM PSTSample 18 flightsLate 11%Typical 19%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 5:50 AM and 6:50 AM PST, 3 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:50 AM–6:50 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 23%Typical 19%
Of 22 departures that took off between 5:50 AM and 6:50 AM PST, 0 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:50 AM–6:50 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 0%Typical 8%
Of 23 arrivals that landed between 6:26 AM and 7:26 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 6:26 AM–7:26 AM PSTSample 23 flightsLate 9%Typical 19%
Of 26 departures that took off between 5:48 AM and 6:48 AM PST, 1 left at least 15 minutes late. LAX typically sees 8% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 AM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 18% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:48 AM–6:48 AM PSTSample 26 flightsLate 4%Typical 8%
Of 39 aircraft that landed at LAX (LAX) between 10:51 AM and 11:51 AM PST and have reached the ramp, 4 took 17 minutes or more from touchdown, at least 10 minutes over the airport’s typical 6.7 minutes; the median was 10 minutes. Usually 7% take that long (this airport, the last 7 days). Measured by Tailodds from FAA surface surveillance; it does not show why. The slow share has stayed at or below 15% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 10 landings and current data.
Landed 10:51 AM–11:51 AM PSTSample 39 arrivalsSlow 10%Usually 7%
Of 15 arrivals that landed between 5:27 AM and 6:27 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:27 AM–6:27 AM PSTSample 15 flightsLate 13%Typical 19%
Of 13 arrivals that landed between 5:11 AM and 6:11 AM PST, 2 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at LAX arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 15 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:11 AM–6:11 AM PSTSample 13 flightsLate 15%Typical 19%
Older items
Each item is the latest update matching your filters; the event’s current status is on its chip. All updates shows the full chronological wire.
Confirmed
An official source (the FAA) reports it. We attribute it; we don’t independently verify it.
Observed
We measured it from FAA flight data: window, sample size and the typical level are on the item.
Forecast
Our model predicts it, with its probability, target, horizon and model version. It has not happened. How accurate is it?