Sourced developments at US airports: what the FAA reports at every airport, and what we measure and our model forecasts at the busiest ones.
Airline analyst: Every MVP detector is airport-wide, so a carrier view would only repeat the airport feed.
What changed: 34% → 31%; calm-weather level 21%
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 31% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 4:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 31%Horizon 6.6 hModel famB-sd-v4i
What changed: 45% → 34% since the 2:00 AM PST forecast (same model, same window)
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 34% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 3:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 34%Horizon 8.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Tailodds’ model gives the 93 departures scheduled from Seattle noon–3 PM Friday an average 45% chance of leaving 15+ minutes late. With calm weather the same flights would average 21%. From the 2:00 AM PST forecast (model famB-sd-v4i). This is a forecast, not a report of delays.
Probability 45%Horizon 9.0 hModel famB-sd-v4i
Of 22 departures that took off between 11:11 PM and 12:11 AM PST, 11 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 11:11 PM–12:11 AM PSTSample 22 flightsLate 50%Typical 20%
What changed: late share 66% → 48%
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 10:20 PM and 11:20 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:20 PM–11:20 PM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 48%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 53% → 66%
Of 35 arrivals that landed between 8:44 PM and 9:44 PM PST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:44 PM–9:44 PM PSTSample 35 flightsLate 66%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 68% → 53%
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 7:23 PM and 8:23 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:23 PM–8:23 PM PSTSample 36 flightsLate 53%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 52% → 68%
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 7:02 PM and 8:02 PM PST, 23 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 7:02 PM–8:02 PM PSTSample 34 flightsLate 68%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 46% at worst → 12% now
Of 33 departures that took off between 5:41 PM and 6:41 PM PST, 4 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 24% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 6 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 5:41 PM–6:41 PM PSTSample 33 flightsLate 12%Typical 24%
Of 26 departures that took off between 4:33 PM and 5:33 PM PST, 12 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 23% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 5 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:33 PM–5:33 PM PSTSample 26 flightsLate 46%Typical 23%
What changed: late share 61% → 52%
Of 27 arrivals that landed between 3:16 PM and 4:16 PM PST, 14 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 3:16 PM–4:16 PM PSTSample 27 flightsLate 52%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 55% → 61%
Of 28 arrivals that landed between 2:55 PM and 3:55 PM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:55 PM–3:55 PM PSTSample 28 flightsLate 61%Typical 19%
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 2:26 PM and 3:26 PM PST, 16 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:26 PM–3:26 PM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 55%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 43% at worst → 15% now
Of 34 departures that took off between 1:22 PM and 2:22 PM PST, 5 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 22% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 1 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 1:22 PM–2:22 PM PSTSample 34 flightsLate 15%Typical 22%
Of 38 departures that took off between 12:23 PM and 1:23 PM PST, 16 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 21% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 12 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 12:23 PM–1:23 PM PSTSample 38 flightsLate 42%Typical 21%
What changed: late share 44% at worst → 19% now
Of 31 arrivals that landed between 11:44 AM and 12:44 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:44 AM–12:44 PM PSTSample 31 flightsLate 19%Typical 19%
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 10:20 AM and 11:20 AM PST, 15 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 10:20 AM–11:20 AM PSTSample 34 flightsLate 44%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 68% → 53%
Of 36 arrivals that landed between 9:24 PM and 10:24 PM PST, 19 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:24 PM–10:24 PM PSTSample 36 flightsLate 53%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 43% → 68%
Of 41 arrivals that landed between 8:23 PM and 9:23 PM PST, 28 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 8:23 PM–9:23 PM PSTSample 41 flightsLate 68%Typical 19%
Of 30 arrivals that landed between 4:55 PM and 5:55 PM PST, 13 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 4:55 PM–5:55 PM PSTSample 30 flightsLate 43%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 59% at worst → 25% now
Of 24 arrivals that landed between 4:04 PM and 5:04 PM PST, 6 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 4:04 PM–5:04 PM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 25%Typical 19%
Of 34 arrivals that landed between 2:25 PM and 3:25 PM PST, 16 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 2:25 PM–3:25 PM PSTSample 34 flightsLate 47%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 58% at worst → 24% now
Of 29 arrivals that landed between 11:46 AM and 12:46 PM PST, 7 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 29% for 31 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 11:46 AM–12:46 PM PSTSample 29 flightsLate 24%Typical 19%
Of 32 arrivals that landed between 9:58 AM and 10:58 AM PST, 17 reached the gate at least 15 minutes late. Typically 19% of arrivals at Seattle arrive that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, all arrivals). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules.
Window 9:58 AM–10:58 AM PSTSample 32 flightsLate 53%Typical 19%
What changed: late share 53% at worst → 8% now
Of 24 departures that took off between 10:31 PM and 11:31 PM PST, 2 left at least 15 minutes late. Seattle typically sees 20% of departures in this hour leave that late (US DOT on-time data, last 12 published months, departures in the 11 PM hour). Measured by Tailodds from FAA flight data against airline schedules. The late share has stayed at or below 30% for 30 minutes across 16 checks, each with at least 12 flights and current data.
Window 10:31 PM–11:31 PM PSTSample 24 flightsLate 8%Typical 20%
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