Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1203 LANDED 11:51 AM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1203 · CLT → BUF

took off 10:32 AM ET · landed 11:51 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1203 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time