AA 1418 · BOS → MIA

took off 6:00 AM ET · landed 8:55 AM ET (scheduled 5:10 AM ET → 8:38 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 1.5 mi forecast at BOS that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BOS are usually not late

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.01 in

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1418 · BOS → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?