Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1864 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 1864 · PHL → FLL

departs 7:20 PM ET · arrives 10:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FLL?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at FLL that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FLL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip2.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1864 · PHL → FLL

Odds over time

How late will it get to FLL?