Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2004 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2004 · PHX → LAS

departs 7:45 AM MT · arrives 8:58 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 7am departures from PHX are usually not late

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

LAS (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2004 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?