Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2495 · SAT → PHX

departs 3:46 PM CT · arrives 4:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAT

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.33 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2495 · SAT → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?