Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2648 LANDED 10:06 PM ET, ~23 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 2648 · MIA → DCA

took off 8:05 PM ET · landed 10:06 PM ET (scheduled 7:05 PM ET → 9:48 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2648 · MIA → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?